The future of religion

Many in the 19th and early 20th centuries expected, hoped and heralded the end of religion. However, nothing has demonstrated the validity of this expectation, hope and announcement. The proclamation of the death of God was not realized because it was talked about again and again. On the contrary, the constant repetition of this prophecy, which apparently has not been fulfilled, even among atheists themselves, has made many skeptics as to whether the end of religion can even be hastened. British historian Arnold J. Toynbee wrote:

I believe that science and technology cannot satisfy the spiritual needs that are cared for by all kinds of religions, although they can discredit some of the traditional dogmas of the so-called high religions. From a historical point of view, religion came first, and science came from religion. Science has never replaced religion, and I believe it never will. How can we achieve true and lasting peace?.. To achieve true and lasting peace, a religious revolution, of which I am absolutely sure, is conditio sine qua non. By religion I mean the overcoming of self-centeredness, both in individuals and in communities, by achieving communication with the spiritual reality beyond the universe and bringing our will into harmony with it. I believe that this is the only key to peace, but we are far from taking this key and using it, and until we do this, the survival of the human race will continue to be in doubt.

The fact that so many atheists never freed themselves from religious problematics, and that the most radical atheists, such as Feuerbach and Nietzsche, who believed that they had achieved liberation by openly proclaiming atheism, remained directly chained to the very human end of their lives. the question of God and religion - all this is obvious (even if we do not seek to triumph, but just soberly state) testifies not so much to death as to the extraordinary vitality of the One who was so often declared dead.

However, the Marxist utopia of the “withering away” of religion after the revolution, inspired by Feuerbach, was most clearly disavowed historical processes V socialist states. Not believing in the automatic “withering away” of religion, militant-aggressive atheism was perceived as the doctrine of the Soviet state, targeted Stalinist terror and post-Stalinist repressions eradicated religion and the church. And 60 years after the October Revolution, unspeakable persecution and abuse of churches and believers, Christianity in the Soviet Union was a growing rather than a declining figure: according to (possibly inflated) data from the period, one in three adult Russians (Russians made up about half of all Soviet citizens) and every fifth Soviet adult was a practicing Christian.

However, in the West, some forecasts turned out to be false. Process of secularization- here it is worth recalling the limitations mentioned at the very beginning of the book - has been overestimated by both sociologists and theologians, or has been treated too undifferentiatedly. The theologians of irreligious secularity, who performed the prelude to the “theology of the death of God,” are today once again professing religion and even popular religion. Often behind one-sided theories there was not only an inadequate critical distance to the spirit of the era and its temptations, but also a completely definite ideological interest: either nostalgia for a golden age (the hypothesis of decline) or a utopian expectation of the coming century (the hypothesis of emancipation). Often, instead of accurate empirical research, grandiose a priori theories were developed.

Various models for interpreting the process of secularization turned out to be undifferentiated: is it possible to confuse secularization with de-churchization? After all, there is a whole area of ​​​​non-church, non-institutionalized religion. Or with a rationalizing release from enchantment? Rationalization in one area of ​​life does not exclude feelings of the irrational or super-rational in another area. Or with desacralization? However, religion cannot in any way be reduced to the sacred sphere.

Generally speaking, today three forecasts are possible about the future of religion:

A. Secularization is reversible, whether through religious restoration or religious revolution. The irreversibility of the process of secularization has not been proven, and such a development cannot be ruled out from the outset, since the future always brings us surprises. But in the current situation such a development is unlikely.

b. Secularization continues in the same direction. Churches then become more and more simply legally recognized minorities. This forecast is more likely, however (it is impossible not to notice) there are also strong counterarguments here.

V. Secularization continues, but in a modified way: it decomposes the religious spectrum into ever new, hitherto unknown social forms of religion, ecclesiastical or extra-church. This forecast is the most likely.

Ideology of secularism tried to make a worldview without faith out of true and necessary secularization: supposedly the end of religion, or at least organized forms of religion, or at least Christian churches. On the contrary, based on modern developments, sociologists view the process of secularization in a very differentiated way. Nowadays they talk rather not about the decline of religion, but about its functional change: The person understands that society has become much more complex and differentiated and that after the initial deep identity of religion and society there had to come a separation of religion from other structures. Therefore, T. Luckmann speaks about the separation of institutional areas from the cosmos of religious meaning, T. Parsons - about evolutionary differentiation(division of labor) between different institutions. Like the family, religion (or the church), through progressive differentiation, has also freed itself from secondary functions (economic and educational, for example) and could now concentrate on its immediate task.

Therefore, such secularization or differentiation offers a great chance. Thanks to Christianity, in the system of interpretation of the world and man himself, new big questions were raised about the origin and purpose of man, about the integrity of the world and history. These great questions of “where from?” and where?" Since then, they have no longer been silent and fundamentally determined all subsequent eras. The pressure of these problems and questions continued to exist in the new secular era. It may be impossible to trace the continuity of answers, but at least the continuity of asking questions is obvious. However, secular sciences modern man for all their achievements, they were obviously incapable of answering these great questions. Here, apparently, excessive demands are made on pure reason.

Without going into further predictions that are made about the future of religion, we can say: the idea of ​​​​replacing religion with science not only has not been confirmed, but it represents a methodologically unjustified extrapolation into the future based on an uncritical faith in science. In view of the growing skepticism towards the progress of reason and science, it is more than doubtful whether science can and will play the role of religion.

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42:1-5 Blessed Future This is a continuation of the prayer for deliverance and spiritual restoration; continues real life, full of hopes for the resolution of pressing life problems and hopes for the future. 1 Judge, that is, carry out judgment in my favor. 2 God of the fortress rejects

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The Future of Dance Then how will human history end? At the end of the last book of the Bible we see the complete opposite of what other religions predict. We do not see how the illusory world melts, we do not see how sublime souls rush out of the physical

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The Prophesied Future This terrible age-old conflict between two worldviews - evolutionary humanism and monotheistic creationism - should be of concern to every Christian, regardless of denomination and, of course, regardless of his (or her) personal

3. The Future The same main interest remains with the Apostle when he considers the future. He faces the same prospect as the rest of us: he will either die or live. He, like everyone else, may be uncertain about the circumstances of this alternative. But this one

The post-secular society discussed by philosophers and sociologists seems to have arrived, but it seems not. They continue to coexist on the planet traditional religions, various ways to deny God and reading horoscopes in the morning. Scientists around the world offer unusual scenarios for the development of human religiosity, stipulating that the spread of artificial intelligence can greatly change them. More details can be found in the article “Holy Numbers and Extra People” by the observer of the portal “Russia of the Future: 2017 → 2035”.

Religion will not go away from our lives

Although atheists, agnostics and other people who do not associate themselves with any particular religion will increase in number in countries such as the United States and France, their share will decrease in total number inhabitants of the Earth, PRC experts found. The total number of believers on the planet will grow for several reasons, the most important of which is demographics. Due to the active growth of the Muslim population, an increase in believers is also expected. It is with Islam that the most optimistic growth forecast of all traditional religions is associated. The most pessimistic forecast is for Buddhism.

Another important conclusion of the American study is that in the future people will abandon Christianity more often than accept it, and the number of Muslims will be equal to the number of Christians. The head of the Patriarchal Commission on Family Issues, Protection of Motherhood and Childhood, Dimitry Smirnov, gives existing Christianity no more than 50 years. If only because in Christian churches the majority of believers are women, and Islam attracts young men.

Islamization of Europe...

Journalist Giulio Meotti quotes Islamic preacher Maulana Syed Raza Rizvi: “London has become a more Islamic city than many Muslim countries put together.” Professor at the University of Essex (UK) David Voas agrees with him: “The influence of Islam will expand in Britain, as well as those of the Christian churches that predominantly care for the black population of the country. Today, every tenth child born in Britain is Muslim. In a few generations, Muslims could make up 10% of the country's total population, even if immigration suddenly stops tomorrow."

However, this situation is typical not only for London and Britain. The American Pew Research Center (PRC) predicts that soon 10% of the population of all Europe will be Muslims. Researchers say that this phenomenon has both objective reasons, which lie in demographic and migration processes, largely determined by technological progress, and subjective reasons, associated with a change of religion in favor of Islam.

The famous French writer Michel Houellebecq, in his book “Submission” (“Submission”), fantasizes that by 2022 France will become Islamic state. “The facade of the Sorbonne University is decorated with a gilded star and crescent, professors are obliged to accept the religion of the Prophet, students wear burqas, women do not work, polygamy is legalized.” It is noteworthy that the fictional party of the future that comes to power in a European state is moderate Muslims, and not a terrorist group at all. Despite this, the novel was received extremely negatively by the French. But perhaps the Islam of the future is really not a threat, but a natural development of society.

...and the Christianization of Africa

Africa will be the main “growth point” of global Christianity in the 21st century - Orthodox clergy agree with the conclusions of an American study. Grigory Trofimchuk, political scientist, first vice-president of the Center for Strategic Development Modeling, notes that the growth in the number of Christian believers on the African continent will eventually lead to the leader of the largest community declaring his country the new universal center of Christianity on the planet. However, the rapid growth of religiosity in Africa, according to some experts, will lead to the shift of most religious conflicts of the future to this continent. And not just conflicts, but international bases of terrorism. However, not everyone shares this opinion: German cultural scientist Larisa Belzer-Lisyutkina, on the contrary, predicts a decrease in the number of military conflicts as a consequence of Christianization and the adoption of pacifist values.

Artificial Intelligence and new spirituality

If with traditional religions everything is more or less clear to scientists, then the development of artificial intelligence technologies and the creation of new tech-oriented religions is still in the realm of science fiction. In one of the most discussed books of 2017 - “Homo Deus: Short story tomorrow” Israeli historian Yuval Noah Harari describes “dataism” - a new ideology according to which man has lost his dominant role in the digital world and has become an unnecessary link. Another value system of the future is techno-humanism, which focuses on the development of human capabilities with the help of neural interfaces and cyborgization. According to the book's author, by 2100, Homo sapiens will cease to exist as a species, as humanity modifies itself with the help of artificial intelligence and biotechnology.

If ever in difficult situation people turned to religion and its representatives, now algorithms decide any way out of situations: who to date, where to live and how to solve financial problems, writes Harari. At the same time, new moral difficulties will arise: how to teach artificial intelligence to separate bad from good, could a situation arise when AI invents its own religion?.. The robotization of religion, however, is already happening: in Germany, for the first time, a robot replaced a clergyman in a church . The robot greets the user and offers to choose a voice and type of blessing. After this, he raises his hands to heaven and says: “God bless and protect you.” Then a saying from the Bible is heard, which can be printed if desired.

It all started with an “innocent” assumption to use Cell phones and applications social networks in churches - to facilitate the search for information, for example, the same electronic Bible. The consequences have become more global - people feel less and less need to go to church when everything can be found on a computer or phone screen. “People are looking for a more personal religious experience,” says Heidi Campbell of Texas A&M University, who studies the interaction between religion and digital culture.

Internet culture and religious memes of the future

The latest population censuses have taught us to be calm about any denomination of people's religious feelings. Such “churches” as the Pastafarian (Flying Spaghetti Monster), the Church of Diego Maradona, the churches of bacon and creativity, the religion of the nation of Yahweh and many others have already become a reality. There are two reasons for the emergence of such exoticisms: protest against traditional religions and their claims to interfere in daily life secular states, fatigue with existing religious forms, and the formalization of marginal and forbidden ideologies (for example, the racism of the religion of the nation of Yahweh).

Another important civilizational reason for rethinking religion in the future is associated with the progress of medical technologies - life is not only becoming longer and better quality, scientists are seriously thinking about technologies of immortality, which undoubtedly undermines the foundations of traditional religions. “In the future, everything may be possible, including cyborgization, uploading consciousness, and moving to virtual reality, and even more exotic options,” predicts Igor Valentinovich Artyukhov, a biophysicist, scientific director of the KrioRus company and a member of the Coordination Council and one of the founders of the Russian transhumanist movement. Other experts are pessimistic about the potential of transhumanist views: “Transhumanism is something that is done out of complete hopelessness. This is a frank attempt to say that homo sapiens is no longer good for anything, he has already completely lost the competition with his own creations and our last hope is for homo super, for a superman” (futurist Sergei Pereslegin). At the same time, the idea of ​​a superman is superimposed on the problem of overpopulation of the planet in the near future and the emergence of a class of “superfluous” people (which is also associated with the robotization of production).

Whatever happens in the future, a person will need to rely on the values ​​of a certain culture or ideology. The competition for a new value environment will include traditional religions, new and exotic, as well as the ideas of transhumanism and the superiority of artificial intelligence. Human survival in this struggle becomes more necessary than ever.

We live in an era of public condemnation of religions in the popular information space. They hinder the development of science and technology, hinder the economic, cultural and sexual realization of an individual’s personality, engage in obscurantism, and are sometimes accused of outright terrorism. Does this mean that the time of religions has passed? On the contrary, there is reason to believe that humanity is preparing to accept a new global religion with its own pantheon of gods and saints, with its own cults and rituals.

In previous articles we described how ancient society spiritual type gradually degenerated into an imperious society. One of the features of this process was the deification of secular rulers. For example, Achilles was the king of the Myrmidons and at the same time recognized as a god. His main passion was to achieve immortality through eternal glory in the memory of posterity. Many rulers are heroes ancient world were deified by their peoples and thus received symbolic immortality. In the process of further degradation, the society of the imperious type was degenerated into a society of the material type. National warrior rulers in armor in the process of bourgeois revolutions ceded supremacy to supranational moneylenders in clerk suits, who crushed the economies of countries, corrupted governments and instilled an ideology of consumption to increase their usurious profits. It is logical to assume that the new supreme rulers will also want to deify themselves and gain immortality. And this assumption has very serious grounds.

The gods of the world's religions are usually incomprehensible. Christians are lucky, they know one of the three hypostases of God - Christ, but the other two hypostases of the Trinity remain incomprehensible. Islam and Judaism profess a completely incomprehensible God. Buddhism completely denies its existence. Perhaps that is why the world's bankers, who want to become gods, keep a low profile. After all, the identities of private shareholders of banks that are part of central banks are a trade secret. Today almost all countries of the world owe them astronomical sums of money. Many experts say that these debts can no longer be repaid. But under these conditions, world bankers are in no hurry to declare their rights to global property. Perhaps they are afraid of a global usurious pogrom. Or perhaps they first need to gain spiritual power in addition to economic and political power. It is necessary that people voluntarily recognize their supremacy and treat them as unattainable and incomprehensible deities. But the symbolic status of deities, which was, for example, among ancient rulers, is not enough. They want to become gods 100%. To do this you need to have omnipotence and immortality.

The omnipotence of the owners of international banking networks is based on their accumulated international financial power over centuries. In a world where everything is bought and everything is sold, they are the supreme rulers. Immortality should be ensured by unlimitedly sponsored new technologies: cryonics, cloning, transplantology, nanorobots (repairing damaged living cells), etc.

These new gods will live forever on earth in a fenced paradise beyond the reach of mere mortals. Human sacrifices in the form of replacement organs will be made to them. One of the types human sacrifices There will be strict birth control, and then a complete abolition of the sexual method of conception.

The degree of public condemnation of people who profess traditional religions will develop into persecution and physical destruction. Christians, Muslims and Jews will be driven underground. Among the general population, the cult of pleasure and enjoyment will intensify, which will be enjoyed at home (TV, Internet, refrigerator, etc.) and in public places of worship (cinemas, restaurants, educational and medical institutions, etc.).

The most devout adherents of the new religion will be people engaged in commercial activities. The future Bill Gates, Steve Jobs and Mark Zuckerbergs will receive the status of saints.

Since immortality technologies cannot be offered to all people, ordinary people There will be massive technologies for life extension due to advances in medicine and the replacement of body organs with electronic devices. The result of this process will be the transformation of an ordinary person into a creature that will have two components. The first is an animal seeking pleasure. The second is a collection of electronic devices connected to the Internet. This creature will have ideal controllability, which will provide the necessary level of security for the gods. For this purpose, a separate ideology is being developed - transhumanism.

Perhaps it is at the peak of a material society, when the world's bankers are declared gods, that the Second Coming will take place. The First Coming took place at the peak of the power-type society, when the first emperor was deified in the Roman Empire. This happened when Christ was 14 years old.

Religion of the new humanity
What religions will be relevant in the future and how science will influence the education of the younger generation - said philosopher Dmitry Petrov

At the end of April, the Saratov Open Environment project turned one year old. This discussion and educational platform monthly brings together those interested in history, culture and art, as well as the modern political and economic situation, for free lectures by leading Saratov philologists, historians, philosophers and public figures. The topic, as a rule, is chosen by an invited expert, and the main wish of the organizers is to use a lively, accessible, non-academic manner of presentation.

Science cannot yet replace the need for the existence of God with anything / Photo: Vladimir Smirnov

Recently, an open lecture on the topic “Religion and the Future” took place in Saratov, it was given by a religious scholar and philosopher, associate professor of the Department of Theology and Religious Studies of SSU Dmitry Petrov. During the meeting, the scientist tried to answer the following questions: what kind of future do world religions envision for humanity and why, what will happen after centuries with Christianity, will science ever be able to prove or disprove the existence of God?
– Our world is changing a lot. Many people, including in Russia, are concerned about the future - both their own, that of the country, and of humanity in general. Some of this concern is related to religion. On the one hand, it becomes a reason for social and political conflicts, on the other hand, many philosophers, religious scholars, and theologians see in the changes that are taking place in religion today a positive potential for the future of people.

– What aspects did you touch upon during the meeting with the audience?

– First of all, I talked about religious futurology - this is a complex of knowledge and ideas of various religions about the future of humanity, the individual and the Universe. After all, it was religion that was the first to talk about the future - we encounter this topic in the context of the earliest religious cultures. And due to the diversity of mythological religious systems, there are a variety of projects for the future of humanity. For us, the most famous eschatology is set out in the Revelation of John the Theologian, this is one of the books of the New Testament. And from religion, science took over the baton of thinking about the future - this is how scientific futurology appeared, which today has become an interdisciplinary branch, interesting both to the natural sciences and the humanities, including religious studies. Another aspect that I touched upon in the lecture is the topic afterlife, what happens after death? This worries every person, and this factor fuels people’s interest in religious futurology. Religions talk about this in different ways - at the lecture I mentioned, for example, ancient Egyptian book of the dead, which significantly influenced Christian culture, as well as Bardo Thedol “Tibetan Book of the Dead”, Orthodox book"The Ordeal of Blessed Theodora."

– In short, what do the main world religions promise humanity?

– Abrahamic religions - Christianity, Islam, Judaism - provide a single concept, it seems to me that it is known to one degree or another to everyone. One option for the development of humanity is mutual extermination and the coming of the Antichrist, or humanity will change and catastrophe will be avoided, then the Kingdom of God will come on Earth. However, Christianity in its Apocalypse says that the catastrophe will still happen. Then will follow the Second Coming and Last Judgment, and after them it will begin new era for humanity, where there will be no wars or self-interest. Buddhism has its own cosmology. According to Buddhist beliefs, the Universe arises and disappears cyclically. And if all people approached the saints, developing a high level of compassion in themselves, then Nirvana would come. In more ancient religions there are two main ideas. One is that the Universe is born and dies, and this is a natural process, like winter and spring. Another says that humanity disappears because the gods punish it for its sins, but then still create something new. This is very schematic and short.

– What awaits religion itself? Are there any theories about this?

– There are scientific concepts that try to predict how the religiosity of people and religious institutions themselves will change. One of them, which arose back in the 19th century, says that there will be no religion at all in the future. A similar forecast appeared in connection with the development of the natural and human sciences. Such outstanding thinkers, as Karl Marx, Auguste Comte, Sigmund Freud, and many others, wrote that science within 50-100 years will simply displace religion and take over its functions that are important for the development of society. But these scientists were in a hurry, although they guessed some trends. For example, science has indeed partially adopted the explanatory function of religion. It explains the structure of the world more effectively and builds a more logical picture of it. In addition, science today can help a person form his own idea of ​​the meaning of life and happiness. However, it has not yet been able to replace religion, and this is confirmed by great amount believing people.

– What functions has science definitely not been able to take on?

– First of all, it cannot satisfy a person’s need for the transcendental - this is what religious studies calls higher powers. There are many scientific concepts, including neurophysiological ones, that explain why a person wants to believe in God. But science cannot yet replace the need for the existence of God with anything. I, like many believers, believe that if there is no God, existence becomes flat, stuffy, and deprived of some important and high dimension. In addition, it is religion that gives hope for immortality, although some futurologists predict that science will eventually extend human life and, perhaps, allow us to live forever. In addition, religion still has an educational function. Modern humanity has not yet developed a brilliant pedagogical concept, and many states, including Russia, are placing great emphasis on the power of religious education.

– Do you think science will ever be able to prove or disprove the existence of God?

– The answer to this question depends on your personal worldview. In Buddhism, the intersection of science and religion has already taken place. Christianity and Western European science are in conflict by inertia. But many futurologists believe that with the development of science, indirect evidence of otherworldly reality will appear. The first results of joint research between Buddhists and neuroscientists already give reason to doubt our old materialistic idea that emptiness is nothing. They discovered powerful energy in a vacuum. Many futurists believe that religious organizations are facing a major transformation. History shows that they can be the source of both the best and the worst in a person. Almost all religions were involved not only in the development of literacy, culture, and humanism, but also in religious wars, chauvinism, and the maintenance of racist ideas. This prevents modern people from seeing religion as an absolutely positive source for the development of society and is already strongly influencing the rethinking of its role in society. Today the combinative nature of religious consciousness is very strong. People are not ready to unconditionally accept everything they are told; the level of critical approach to religious mythology, teachings and institutions has increased - this is the result of the loss of authority of leading faiths. The history of mankind knows that religions could exist for 3,000 years, and then disappear, and they were replaced by new ones. A number of experts believe that there will be a revolutionary leap in religious consciousness, as a result of which a religion of “new humanity” will arise. This does not mean that Christianity or Buddhism will disappear. They are just revealing new potential. Some religious scholars predict that there will be a merger of faiths, while others are inclined to believe that the new religion will become the second wind of Christianity.

Dmitry Petrov / Photo: from personal archive

– Dmitry Borisovich, one of your scientific works was devoted to the value world of modern man. What is it and how does it change?

– It is quite difficult to generalize this topic. The value world of Europeans today is leaning towards secular, secular consciousness, but while maintaining a positive attitude towards religion. That is, there is a synthesis of secular and religious values. European culture is looking for golden mean for social, cultural and political development, a course has been taken to humanize legislation. The United States has a very peculiar picture - there has always been religious pluralism, the presence of many religious organizations does not interfere with the development of secular culture and does not contradict secular legislation. Today, judging by surveys, there are more and more atheists and believers who do not identify themselves with any religion. Overall in modern society family morphology is changing, people value the traditional type less family relations. The attitude towards people’s oddities becomes more accepting. In connection with the development of science and technology, man’s attitude towards his own future is changing; people have become much more greater value attach to technologies and connect their future with their achievements. Humanity is developing intellectually, but, alas, not emotionally.

– Is there any way to counter this?

– Yes, through cultural promotion, the popularization of those areas of life that contribute to the development of humanity in the individual. With the help of literature, religious culture, religious studies, philosophy, art. Education should not rest solely on scientific and technological progress. Some futurologists talk about the possible symbiosis of man and machine, and many are happy about this. But it’s wrong when technology, and not people, becomes the inspirer of our future.

The Pew Research Center (Washington) and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (Laxenburg, Austria) presented the first quantitative demographic forecast of the growth of major religious groups based on data on age structure, fertility, mortality, migration and religious conversions. Over the course of six years, demographers collected data from more than 2,500 censuses, surveys and registers from 198 countries and territories.

The study covers eight main religious groups: Buddhists, Hindus, Jews, Muslims, Christians, adherents of ethnic religions (African, Chinese, indigenous religions of America and Australia), adherents of other religions (Baha'is, Taoists, Jains, Zoroastrians, Sikhs, etc.) and religiously unaffiliated people (atheists, agnostics and those who do not identify themselves with any religion). Censuses and surveys do not always provide information on religious subgroups (Sunni and Shia, Catholics, Protestants and Orthodox), so these divisions are not taken into account.

The distribution of the world's population by religion is changing rapidly. This is due to the fact that fertility (the average number of children per woman) and the proportion of young people differ among adherents different religions, as well as with conversions to another religion.

Currently, Christianity is the largest religion in the world in terms of the number of followers. The number of its adherents in 2010 was estimated at 2.2 billion people - this is about a third (31%) of the Earth's population (6.9 billion). Islam ranked second with 1.6 billion followers, or 23% of the world's population.

But if current demographic trends continue, then mid XXI century, Islam will almost overtake Christianity. From 2010 to 2050, the world population is expected to grow by 35% to 9.3 billion. Over the same period, the number of Muslims, a relatively young population with high fertility, will grow by 73%. The number of Christians will also grow, but more slowly, at about the same rate as the general population, increasing by 35% by 2050. Thus, by 2050, Muslims (2.8 billion, 30% of the population) are likely to be nearly equal in number to Christians (2.9 billion, 31% of the population) for the first time in history.

All religious groups except Buddhists will more or less increase in absolute numbers. The Buddhist population will not change due to low fertility and aging populations in countries such as China, Thailand and Japan. The world's Hindu population is expected to grow by 34% (from 1 billion to 1.4 billion), about the same as the world population as a whole. The number of Jews, the smallest of the groups covered by the forecast, will grow by 16% - from 14 to 16.1 million.

The number of adherents of ethnic religions, according to this forecast, will grow by 11% - from 405 to 450 million people. Followers of all other religions (which are considered in the work as a single group) will increase in number by 6% - from 58 to 61 million people. Thus, ethnic religions, Judaism and “other” religions, will grow in absolute numbers by 2050, but less than the population as a whole, and will represent a smaller percentage of the population than in 2010.

Likewise, the share of religiously unaffiliated people will decrease, although their absolute numbers will increase. According to censuses and surveys, in 2010 the number of atheists, agnostics and people who do not identify themselves with any religion was 1.1 billion. By 2050 their number is expected to exceed 1.2 billion, but the share world population will decrease from 16% to 13%. At the same time, the proportion of unaffiliated people in the population of Europe and North America is expected to increase significantly. Thus, in the USA, their relative number is projected to increase from 16% in 2010 to 26% in 2050.

As this example shows, we should expect marked differences in the geographic distribution of religious growth patterns. One of the main determinants of future growth is the current geographic concentration of adherents. Religions with large numbers of followers in developing countries where fertility is high and infant mortality is falling will grow rapidly. For example, the number of Muslims and Christians will grow mainly due to sub-Saharan Africa. In contrast, the religiously unaffiliated population today is concentrated in countries with low fertility and aging populations - Europe, North America, China and Japan.

Muslims have the highest fertility rate, with an average of 3.1 children per woman. This is much higher than the level of simple reproduction (2.1), i.e., the minimum value required to maintain a constant population size. Christians rank second with 2.7 children per woman. Fertility among Indians (2.4) is close to the world average (2.5). Among the Jews it is also higher than the level of simple reproduction (2.3). All other groups have fertility too low to support populations: ethnic religions have a rate of 1.8, “other religions” 1.7, unaffiliated 1.7 and Buddhists 1.6.

Another important determinant of growth is the contemporary age distribution within a religious group. The rate of growth depends on whether the group is dominated by young people or people older than childbearing age. In 2010, more than a quarter of the world's population (27%) was under 15 years of age. But among Muslims and Hindus the proportion of people under 15 years of age was 34% and 30%, respectively, and among Christians it was at the world average (27%). This is one of the reasons that the Muslim population will grow faster than the world population as a whole, and the Hindu and Christian population will grow at about the same rate.

All other groups have a lower proportion of youth and a higher proportion of older people than the global average. For example, in 2010, people over 59 years old made up 11% of the world's population. But among Jews the share of this age category was 20%, among Buddhists 15%, among Christians 14%, among followers of “other religions” 14%, among unaffiliated 13%, and among followers of ethnic religions 11%. At the same time, the proportion of elderly people among Muslims was 7%, and among Hindus 8%.

Conversion to another religion also plays an important role. But this is a complex and geographically heterogeneous phenomenon. In some countries, the conversion of an adult to another faith is an ordinary occurrence, while in others it is rare, legally difficult, or even illegal. This forecast is based on patterns of change of faith in 70 countries for which there is data from relevant surveys. Over the next decades, Christians are expected to lose the largest absolute number of adherents to conversions to other religions. According to the forecast, about 40 million people will convert to Christianity, and 106 million will convert from Christianity, mainly to the unaffiliated group.

It is assumed that unaffiliated people will gain 97 million people through appeals and lose 36 million. Thanks to appeals, the number of Muslims (by 3 million), adherents of ethnic religions (3 million) and “other” religions (2 million) will increase slightly. The Jews will lose about 300 thousand people, and the Buddhists about 3 million.

Another factor influencing the number of religious groups in different countries- migration. Forecasting migration flows is difficult because they are determined by unpredictable political factors. Therefore, many demographic models do not take migration into account. But within the framework of this study, a new way of taking into account migration patterns of the past has been developed to assess religious aspect migration flows of the future.

According to this forecast, the share of Muslims in the population of Europe, taking into account migration, will increase from 5.9% (2010) to 10.2% (2050), and without taking into account migration - to 8.4%. In North America, the share of Indians, taking into account migration, will almost double (from 0.7% to 1.3%), and without taking into account migration will remain at the same level (0.8%). In the Middle East and North Africa, Christian immigration to the six Gulf countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates) is expected to counterbalance Christian emigration from other countries in the region. Without taking into account migration, the share of Christians in the region's population will fall below 3%, and taking into account migration it will be slightly higher than 3% (in 2010 it was about 4%).

This forecast assumes that current demographic trends will continue. But every year the likelihood will increase that some unpredictable event (war, famine, epidemic, technological innovation, political revolution, etc.) will change the size of one or another religious group. Therefore, it is difficult to make forecasts for more than a few decades. However, one may wonder what will happen if the identified demographic processes continue into the second half of the century.

In this case, the numbers of Muslims and Christians will be equal around 2070, their shares in the world population will be about 32%. After that, they will grow at about the same rate (Muslims a little faster), and by 2100 the share of Muslims will be about 35%, and Christians - 34%. The growth of both of these groups will come mainly from Africa. Their total share of the world population will increase from 55% in 2010 to 61% in 2050 and to 69% in 2100.

But it is necessary to remind again that these figures can be influenced by many unpredictable factors - for example, the spread of Christianity in China or mass abandonment of religion in Muslim countries, similar to what is happening now in some Christian countries.

IN this study contains not only a global forecast, but also forecasts for 198 countries and territories with a population of over 100 thousand people, which cover 99.9% of the world population. The countries are divided into six regions. A forecast has been built for each of them religious composition population until 2050, based on the assumption that current migration and other demographic processes will continue.

Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to have the fastest population growth, from 12% of the world's population in 2010 to 20% in 2050. The population of the Middle East and North Africa region will also grow faster than the global average and increase its share from 5 to 6%. Population growth in both of these regions will lead to an increase in the proportion of Muslims in the world's population. In addition, the Christian population of sub-Saharan Africa is expected to double - from 517 million to 1.1 billion. The share of Christians in sub-Saharan Africa among all Christians will increase from 24% to 38%.

The share of Asia-Pacific residents in the world population will decrease from 59% to 53%. Related to this is the slow growth of religions such as Buddhism and Chinese ethnic religions, as well as the large unaffiliated population in the region. The exception is Hindus, who are almost entirely concentrated in India, where the population is younger and fertility is higher than in China and Japan. As already mentioned, the number of Hindus is growing at approximately the same rate as the entire world population. India's significant Muslim population is also growing rapidly. While India will remain a predominantly Hindu country, its Muslim community is expected to become the world's largest by 2050, overtaking Indonesia.

The share of other regions in the world population will also decline: Europe - from 11% to 8%, Latin America and the Caribbean - from 9% to 8%, North America - from 5% to a slightly lower figure.

Europe is the only region where absolute population size is expected to decline. The Christian population will decrease from 553 million to 454 million. Christians will remain the largest religious group in Europe, but their share will decrease from 3/4 to 2/3. In 2050, about a quarter (23%) of Europeans will belong to no religion, and Muslims will make up about 10%, up from 5.9% in 2010. Over the same period, the number of Hindus in Europe will roughly double, from 1.4 million . (0.2% of the European population) to 2.7 million (0.4%), mainly as a result of immigration. The number of Buddhists will grow to approximately the same extent - from 1.4 million to 2.5 million.

The population of Russia, according to this forecast, will decrease from 143 million (2010) to 124 million (2050). The majority of the population will continue to identify themselves as Christians (73.3% in 2010 and 71.3% in 2050), but the proportion of Muslims will increase from 10% to 16.8%. The share of unaffiliated is expected to decline from 16.2% to 11.3%. The number of other religious groups does not exceed 0.2% at present and will not change significantly in the future.

In North America, the fastest growing group is Muslims and followers of “other” religions. For example, in the USA, the share of representatives of “other” religions will more than double - from 0.6% to 1.5%. The share of Christians will fall from 78% to 66%, and the share of unaffiliated will rise from 16% to 26%. In addition, by the middle of the 21st century there will be more Muslims (2.1%) than Jews (1.4%) in the United States.

In Latin America and the Caribbean, Christians will remain the largest religious group - 89% in 2050 versus 90% in 2010. The unaffiliated population is expected to grow both in absolute and percentage terms - from 45 million (8%) to 65 million (9%).

According to this forecast, in some countries the majority of the population in 2050 will profess a different religion than in 2010. The number of countries with a Christian majority will decrease from 159 to 151: Australia, Benin, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Great Britain, Macedonia, the Netherlands, New Zealand and France, the share of Christians will become less than 50%.

The number of countries with a Muslim majority (over 50%) will increase from 49 to 51 due to Macedonia and Nigeria. However, Nigeria will also remain with a very large Christian population; In terms of the number of Christians, this country will be in third place after the United States and Brazil.

In France, New Zealand and the Netherlands, the largest group is expected to be unaffiliated by 2050.

This forecasting model is based on an advanced version of the age-shifting method, a conventional method of demographic forecasting. The population is divided into groups (cohorts) by gender, age and religion. Each cohort "moves into the future" year by year by adding expected additions (immigrants and people converting to a given religion) and subtracting expected losses (deads, emigrants, people leaving a given religion). The youngest cohort (under 4 years of age) is formed by adding the number of births according to country-specific fertility to each cohort of women aged 15 to 49 years, and the child is assumed to inherit the mother's religion.

Some sociologists suggest that as economic development countries, more and more people are abandoning religious affiliation. This pattern is typical for a number of countries around the world, in particular European ones, but it is unclear whether it is universal. However, this forecast is not based on this theory. It extrapolates empirically observed patterns of religious change across all 70 countries for which data are available. In addition, it takes into account UN experts' predictions that in countries with high fertility it will decline as women's educational levels increase. It is also expected that life expectancy will increase in most countries.

You can read the full report (pdf, 245 pp.)

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